Net Withdrawal Simulator
Calculates your retirement runway considering FIFO rules, taxes, and inflation.
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Years until Portfolio Depletion
$0.00
Initial Net Withdrawal (Current Power)
The Retirement Logic: Why Taxes and FIFO Matter
Many investors in the FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) community rely on the "4% Rule" to calculate their withdrawal safe rate. However, simple math often ignores the "Tax Drag" and structural selling rules like FIFO. Our calculator provides a more nuanced view of your financial longevity.
What is the FIFO (First-In-First-Out) Principle?
FIFO is a cost-basis method where the first shares you bought are the first ones sold. Because
your oldest shares usually have the highest embedded capital gains, your tax bill is often
highest at the start of your retirement. Many calculators assume an "average" profit component,
but the FIFO logic means your early withdrawals might be taxed more heavily than later ones,
potentially affecting your portfolio's early survival (Sequence of Returns Risk).
How does inflation impact my withdrawal plan?
If you retire today on $2,000 a month, that same $2,000 will buy significantly less in 20 years.
To maintain your lifestyle, you must increase your withdrawals annually to keep up with
inflation. This "inflation spiral" puts mounting pressure on your portfolio. Our simulator
automatically adjusts your monthly withdrawal amount based on the inflation rate, showing you
the result in **today's purchasing power**.
Dividends vs. Capital Gains: Which is better?
From a tax perspective, many modern systems treat dividends and long-term capital gains
similarly. However, selling shares gives you more control. You only pay taxes on the *profit
component* of the sale, whereas dividends are usually taxed on the full amount. This "Basis
Recovery" makes selling shares slightly more tax-efficient in the early years of a withdrawal
plan.
What is the "Sequence of Returns Risk"?
This is the risk that a market crash occurs early in your retirement. If the market drops 30%
while you are still withdrawing $2,000 a month, you are forced to sell a much larger percentage
of your remaining shares. This can lead to premature portfolio depletion even if the long-term
average market return is positive. Having a "Cash Buffer" for 1-2 years of expenses is a common
strategy to mitigate this risk.
Should I use a fixed or variable withdrawal rate?
A fixed amount adjusted for inflation is easier for personal budgeting but riskier for the
portfolio. A variable rate (e.g., % of current portfolio value) ensures the portfolio never hits
zero, but it means your income will fluctuate with the stock market. Most experts recommend a
"Guardrail" approach: start with a fixed amount, but reduce spending slightly if the market
drops significantly.
How to optimize taxes in a brokerage account?
Investors often use "Specific Identification" (if allowed by their broker) to sell shares with
the least profit first to defer taxes. If stuck with FIFO, you can consider "Asset Location"
strategies, holding high-growth assets in tax-advantaged accounts (like a 401k or IRA) and
dividend-paying assets in taxable accounts, depending on your local tax law.
Embed this Calculator on Your Website
You can integrate this calculator for free into your own website. Get the embed code on our overview page.